Corn and soybean harvest remains ahead of pace.

Corn ratings fell 1% from the prior week, 64% good/excellent. The trade expected 64%. For this week corn is rated as #17 out of 38 years.

For corn, ratings at this time of year show some level of accuracy for yield modeling. This week's rating can explain 66% of final yields. This week's rating would imply +1.1% from starting trend. Yield would be 182.9 bpa vs. USDA's 181.0 starting trend view. USDA in September was at 183.6.

Harvest was estimated at 21% complete. The trade expected 23%. The five year average is 18%.

Soybean ratings were unchanged at 64% good/excellent. The trade expectation was 64%. This is a stout rating for this time of year, tied for #9 out of 38 prior years.

Ratings models now have good accuracy at this time of year. Today's number would explain 75% of final yields. A simple model would imply yields are currently +3.8% from USDA's starting 52.0 bpa yield, 54.0. USDA's September yield estimate was 53.2.

Harvest was estimated at 26% complete. The trade expected 24%. The five year average is 18%.

Winter wheat planting increased from last week's 25% complete pace to 39%. The expectation was 38%. The five year average pace is 38%.

‍