Climate Prediction Center's updated forecasts ease yield concern.

The general long term weather narrative for 2024 was one of above normal temperatures for all and below normal moisture during the summer for the Plains and much of the Western Cornbelt. This forecast had been in general agreement among government and private forecasters, with some moderate differences.

The recent moisture recharge for the Midwest, still expected for many areas in the short term, have already lightly eased some concerns about summer stress ahead.

Now, we see the government has moderately changed its view of how severe the summer will be. The Climate Prediction Center's updated long term forecast now suggests beneficial moisture continuing through the month of June. Additionally, the vast majority of the Midwest will see normal temperatures.

Updates to their summer forecast also suggest less stress ahead. The temperature forecast will remain largely the same as prior forecasts. But they've essentially pushed all of their moisture problems back by one month. For July, as suggested by the Jun - Aug maps, only Central and Western Nebraska and Kansas would see moisture stress. This is key for corn with a pronounced weather importance right during reproduction. The August forecast, as suggested by the Jun - Aug maps, would allow for stress for the West.

The general summer forecast here, if exactly realized, would still suggest lightly below trend yields for corn and soybeans. However, we hesitate to suggest it would result in a change to the general supply narrative.

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