Corn – March just 1 penny away from unchanged for the week, choppy trade but no direction
↔ This week has seen a slow grind lower that has been brought back by index fund buying resulting in
an overall sideways move for the week, index funds appeared to be back on the sidelines yesterday
↓↑ Ethanol was slightly poor this week while exports were slightly strong for the week
↑ Price near 3 year lows suggests that we should expect better exports each week now going forward
↔ There didn’t appear to be much trading fund activity this week, we will see if that is reported on this
afternoon’s COT report, with funds short 82% of record we would expect their activity to slow soon
Beans – Better support is expected under 1200, funds may still have been sellers yesterday
↑ Better support is expected at any price level under 1200, especially close to 3 year lows of 1181 ¼
↓ Unlike corn where funds are already short 82% of record, in beans funds are short 54% of record
which means there is more room to find funds selling for beans looks to have been seen again yesterday
↔ We will see on today’s COT report where funds stand as of Tuesday’s close, it is unlikely they built a
short position similar to what they have in corn but it is likely to be larger than seen last week
↔ Unlike corn, a price move down to 3 year lows may still not see increased exports given that BRA
beans are still considerably cheaper than US beans to China, more than $1 cheaper
Wheat – Late yesterday overseas we turned around to finish higher, that also spills over US wheat
↑ In a bit of wild trade for overseas wheat yesterday started drastically lower but managed to turn
around and finish the day higher which spilled support over to US wheat yesterday and overnight
↓ On the longer-term outlook even with yesterday’s turnaround the overall trend for overseas wheat is
still lower and may still see new 3 year lows made next week
Cattle – Cash trades reported $2 to $3 higher yesterday, BB mostly calm, packer profits near $9
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.40 select -0.92 packer BE at 183.58, packer cushion $9.12
↑ Cash trades were stronger than expected yesterday coming in at $2 to $3 higher
↔ BB was slightly lower yesterday but remains at a moderate level keeping packer profits around $9
which is not as high as the $14 seen last week but is better than $7 which can cause concern
↑ Futures are maintaining a price level slightly above cash factoring in a $4.50 higher cash trade
↔ On Monday futures struggled once moving over the 100 day moving average which today is at
182.40, we will see if some resistance is seen today above that level