Corn – Early estimates for Thursday’s report are calling for a slight yield decline, funds major buyers
↑ The early estimates (not official) for Thursday’s report look for yield to go from 183.1 to 182.7
↔The current price level of Dec is also right at a level that assumes no yield change to a small decline
↑ Funds bought 66K corn last week, fastest buying week since July, now short 154K or 50% of record
↓ Cautious trade is still expected as even though early estimates call for a yield decline, that isn’t what we have historically seen on the September report, mostly whatever August does to yield, Sep follows
↓ Given funds bought 66K and open interest didn’t change much, cash selling likely still very active
Beans – Early estimates call for yield unchanged, funds buyers of 22K, overnight expecting 8 AM sales
↑ Overnight traders add support likely expecting small to moderate 8 AM sales this morning
↔Early estimates look for Thursday’s bean yield to go from 53.2 to 53.3
↑ Funds bought 22K, they still lag far behind their corn buying, now short 154K or 83% of record
↔We have seen 8 AM sales often enough to expect to see them most mornings, last week’s weekly total was solid at 1528K but was a slowdown from the previous amazing week of 2533K
↔By next week we would expect to start seeing normal harvest pressure as harvest truly gets started
Wheat – Funds buy 14K, wheat likely to keep more focus on exports than the Thursday report
↓ Given that the September crop report is typically quiet for wheat it is likely most traders in this market will keep more of a focus on exports, last week’s exports slowed back to a poor level of 340K
↑ Funds are buying wheat but much slower, buyers of 14K, now short 43K or 26% of record
Cattle – May start with some follow through selling from last week’s surprising/disappointing cash
↔Friday’s PM BB was choice -2.10 select -0.66 packer BE at 192.26, packer cushion $9.34
↓ Futures added in a bit of panic selling again on Friday after seeing last week’s surprising lower cash trade, that is the first time this year packer profits were over $10 and cash didn’t trade higher
↓ Friday’s BB took Choice + Select back to 606, almost matching the low for the recent move at 605
↔Packer profits have been an excellent guide all year on knowing what to expect out of cash right up to last week, now it is tough to know if it will go back to working this week or if there is a new pattern
↔Even with BB moving lower, cash is keeping pace which is keeping packer profits over $9, a level that could still be expected to see higher cash if sellers try for that higher price this week
↔Are those in cash fearing a repeat of last year’s Fall setback that started on September 19th?