Corn – Exports will be expected strong today, analysts expecting 1200K+, more yield estimates
↑ Both traders and analysts are expecting strong exports today, likely looking for 1200K or more
↔More yield estimates are coming out with most not far from USDA’s 183.1, the current price of Dec corn is also at a level that assumes no yield change from the USDA next week
↔Tough to tell if funds were short covering or not yesterday, given the uncommon nature of open interest and trading patterns we will have to wait for Monday’s COT report to know for sure
↔Cash selling is likely to pick up quickly again once the core of harvest gets underway, for some that could be 1 to 1 ½ weeks away
Beans – Exports are expected very strong again at 2000K+, Nov also pricing in no yield change
↑ Exports are expected to be very strong again at 2000K or more, last week was amazing at 2533K
↔Like corn, Nov beans are pricing in no yield change from the USDA next week, it is odd that trade is taking that route knowing the USDA has changed yield on this report 25 years in a row
↔ARG crush workers came to an agreement to avoid a strike, in the last 2 years we really haven’t seen trade react much to South American strike talks (a day or so) as we now know they happen annually
↓ This week Nov has hit a rather random resistance level of 1025, 4 moves close but not taking that out
Wheat – Exports are expected slightly strong around 500K, talk that price may already slow exports
↑ Exports are expected slightly strong today at 500K but there is already talk that price has rallied enough to slow future exports, some claim Russian wheat is cheaper to Mexico than US wheat
↓ Some of this fear that exports may slow as quick as next week added pressure yesterday
↔If exports do slow then we should expect US wheat to go back to following overseas again
Cattle – Disappointing cash trades of $1 to $2 lower, futures move right in line with that cash news
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.09 select -2.61 packer BE at 193.13, packer cushion $10.21
↓ Cash traded $1 to $2 lower yesterday and futures followed right in line maintaining a price level $2 under cash assuming normal basis, we will see if futures extend that gap further to $3 or $4 under cash
↔This week was the first week of the year where packer profits were $10 or more and we didn’t see a higher cash trade, for packers this will likely be the most profitable week in beef for the year so far
↔BB moved down again yesterday, choice + select is 608, recent lows have been 605
↔Last year’s setback started on 9/19, that may be causing some to believe it will happen again soon