Corn – Ethanol poor yesterday, exports expected strong today around 1100K
↑ Exports are expected strong today around 1100K after last week was very strong at 1271K
↓ Ethanol fell to a poor level of 818K yesterday but it’s 1 bad report after 7 strong reports in a row
↔ Trade can shrug off seeing a single poor ethanol report if today’s exports are supportive
↔ Neither volume spikes nor open interest changes suggest recent support is fund short covering
↑ A recovery to 560 – 570 is possible as long as weekly ethanol/export reports remain supportive
Beans – SA maps not entirely dry but missing enough rain for light support, exports expected strong
↑ SA maps are not entirely dry this morning but dry enough for BRA to bring up at least light support
↑ Exports are expected strong again this week of at least 700K following last week’s 783K
↔ Like corn, there are no signs of fund short covering yet, most recent support looks to be light
speculative buying once fund the selling moved to the sidelines
↓ A recent small round of resistance is being seen around 1250, upcoming expected chart resistance
levels are a downtrend crossing today at 1271 ¾ and a 38% retracement bounce level of 1281
↔ When hearing BRA production estimates keep in mind that last year’s BRA production was a record
at 154.6 MMT, also worth knowing is that CONAB is at 155.2, still very solid levels
Wheat – Exports expected strong likely over 400K but not nearly as strong as last week’s 708K
↑ Exports expected strong again this week likely 400K – 500K, not likely to reach last week’s 708K
↓ March CHI has reached pre crop report levels and may start finding light resistance here
↔ Exports remain the #1 guiding factor for wheat making today’s report key for short-term guidance
Cattle – $1 higher cash trades in NE/KS, BB slightly lower but still trending higher in the big picture
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.16 select -1.14 packer BE at 186.29, packer cushion $13.05
↑ $1 higher cash trades seen in both NE and KS, a higher cash trade early in the week may suggest that
later week trades could reach +$1.50 which is what futures have priced in by yesterday’s close
↔ BB was lower yesterday but not low enough to change the overall upwards trend
↔ Packer profits are still at $13 which is still high enough to believe that another $0.50 higher cash
trade could be seen today or tomorrow
↑ Today’s cattle weight report should show a small decline as it will look back to the winter storm