Corn – March down 10 cents on the week, possible Friday profit taking support, grind lower continues
↑ March being down 10 cents on the week brings up the possibility of a profit taking Friday trade today
↔ Open interest in corn has fallen the last 3 days but on a lower move it is less likely that it is funds liquidating shorts, we won’t know for sure until next Friday’s COT report
↑ Better general support will be expected at levels around 400 or lower, it is not a guaranteed level that would stop the slide but if corn moves at/below that level then moving lower is likely to be very slow
↓ Yesterday’s Ag Forum numbers did little to change the over all trend of a grind lower, it will likely take some larger scale positive news to turn the trend and to cause funds to start short covering
Beans – Overnight expecting a profit taking Friday trade, USDA’s numbers even larger than expected
↑ Like corn, overnight bean traders are looking for a profit taking Friday bounce given that March is down 15 ½ cents on the week
↑ Beans should see larger scale support if the grind takes March/May down near 1100
↓ Also like corn, while improved support is expected on a lower move it will still take some type of positive news to cause the current trend to turn and funds to cover shorts
↓ Exports remained poor yesterday at 378 and some of the sales to “unknown” turned out to be. Columbia and not China as trade is used to expecting, Chinese demand has slowed drastically
Wheat – Overseas continues lower, aggressive new lows yesterday and slightly lower again last night
↓ Overseas aggressively lower to new lows yesterday and still grinding to new 3 year lows last night
↓ CHI wheat had recently been able to hold up against the overseas move lower but now it also looks caught up in the pressure despite weekly exports being solid at 397K
↓ May CHI is now lead contract and that made new 3 year lows yesterday for the first time this year
Cattle – NE traded cash at 182 yesterday (+1.50) which helped add in some light support, BB higher
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.30 select +3.97 packer BE at 185.19, packer cushion $3.53
↑ Yesterday NE traded cash +$1.50 over last week after KS/TX traded -$1.50, that slightly higher trade helped to add light support back in for futures
↑ Cattle weights were down 3 lbs again yesterday, seasonally expected but also added light support
↑ BB was higher to add a bit more support, packer profits are not yet strong but are improved
↔ With all the speculative trade from last week now worked into the market and futures in line with cash it is most likely that BB will go back to being our #1 guide going forward