Corn – Another drift lower that did not appear to be from funds, active cash selling at lower levels?
↓ Active resistance was seen again yesterday the moment corn moved over 400, with open interest significantly lower this does not appear to be fund related, it looks like more cash selling at lower levels
↔Poor basis levels also hint to recent pressure being cash selling, producers are attempting to let old crop go before harvest while elevators have solid amounts of grain on hand already
↔Signs point to fund short covering slowing this week, they likely see little risk of a sudden bounce
↔Exports were moderate at 921K, a number of at least 1000K is needed to beat USDA expectations
Beans – Exports improve further, cash selling also likely in beans, some macro selling seen overnight
↑ Exports were strong at 1567K yesterday, improving for a 5th week and showing that demand is picking up at these new lower price levels, trade may start to rely on exports remaining strong
↓ Cash selling is likely pressuring beans as well, to this point it hasn’t appeared as aggressive as seen in corn but there are signs it may be picking up for the same reason we are seeing it in corn
↓ Last night there was also some macro selling seen, not as large as seen last week though
↔Contract low for Nov is 955 ¼, we will see if that level can offer better support
Wheat – Overseas to new lows on the year again yesterday, recovering slightly overnight
↓ Overseas remains #1 influence right now and it made new lows for the year yesterday
↔Exports were moderate again at 385K, not adding pressure or support at that level
↔It would be difficult to expect wheat to put together any time of bounce while corn/beans are moving lower, the best case for support would likely be improved exports
Cattle – Cash trades mostly a surprising $3 lower yesterday in all areas, BB up to new recent highs
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.06 select +1.53 packer BE at 196.52, packer cushion $9.07
↓ Cash sales were surprisingly low yesterday trading $3 lower in all areas, for at least this week cattle seem to have followed grains in the idea of letting cash go quickly
↔In January when packer profits first moved over $8 cash traded +$1.48, in February when it happened again cash was +$1.90, in May a 3rd time it happened cash was +$2.09, this all shows how surprising it is to see packer profits move over $8 this week and cash looks to trade -$3
↑ Boxed beef made new 30 day highs yesterday, while packer profits didn’t help cash this week we have to still think that if BB keeps moving higher cash will eventually follow