Corn – Exports have been improving recently, we will see if that continues today, overnight cautious
↔Last week’s exports recovered to a moderate level of 1076K, we will see if today continues that trend and if we can see exports at a level trade would call strong (1100K+)
↔If both ethanol and exports continue improving it could, in the least, slow the slide lower
↔With corn at 3 ½ year lows it is tough to pick the next level that may act as support, that is why the 400 was key but was taken out yesterday
↔Trade is already factoring in above trend line yields, trend yields suggest a price of 420, given that Dec is sub $4 we know that trade is already assuming a yield increase, likely on the August 12th report
Beans – Maps improved for the WCB which has been the one area with the least rain in the forecast
↓ Morning 6 – 10 day maps added rains for ND/SD/NE which are all areas that have seen the least amount of rain in the forecast over the last week
↔Weekly exports have been improving with last week at 918K, if today can improve further near 1000K it could add support and give trade the idea that demand is starting to truly improve
↔Like corn trade has already pre priced in a yield increase, a trend yield suggests a Nov price around
$11 and current levels near $10 show that trade is already now assuming above trend yields
Wheat – Overseas higher last night, exports have not been as supportive for wheat recently
↑ Overseas on a small bounce last night, possibly due to the increasing conflict
↔A couple months ago wheat exports improved to a strong level giving an idea of a true demand improvement but in the last 3 weeks they slowed again, a number of 600K+ would be strong
↔Other than exports wheat is being guided mostly by what other markets are doing
Cattle – BB slightly lower, trade a bit more cautious again, no cash bids seen yet
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.29 Select -1.22 packer BE at 195.24, packer cushion $5.04
↓ Another quiet day for cash bids does not give confidence that packers are aggressive bidders this week, otherwise we would have heard a bid by now, that could be keeping futures cautious
↔After seeing the 3 day BB bounce that started to look supportive BB has since been choppy and sideways, not giving much for a clear influence going forward
↓ We should still expect $200 as resistance, whether that’s cash, futures or any other source