Boxed Beef Grinds Higher

Corn – GTE -1% at 74%, small heat threat in 10 day outlook, strong cash bids suggest strong exports

↑ Still not extreme but there is a round of above average temperatures in the 10 day outlook

↑ Strong cash bids suggest that the recent run of improved exports is continuing this week

↔ After 2 aggressive weeks of selling, funds looked to take yesterday off, we would need to see them take 3 days off or reach above 80% of record shorts before starting to assume they are on the sidelines

↔ GTE was down 1% but at 74% it remains well above the 5 year average level

Beans – First GTE at 72%, average is 64%, planting 87%, more questions about the BRA tax situation

↓ First GTE was the 4th best start ever at 72%, starting out well above the 64% average

↔ Planting pace at 87% and a clearer forecast should put aside any last concerns about planting

↔ Once again talk is centered around the BRA tax situation with trade wondering if it will slow exports out of BRA, there are still far more questions than answers on what (if any) impacts will be seen

↔ Trade will be watching for more US bean sales to China like the 104K seen on Friday

↓ Rain totals in the Delta were lowered this morning from next week’s tropical storm

Wheat – Harvest at 12%, as combines move towards KS larger yields are expected, overseas lower

↓ Harvest came in at 12% compared to 6% average, forecast maps don’t slow harvest much

↓ As combines move closer to KS even stronger yield reports are expected

↓ Since last week’s calming Russian headlines, overseas wheat has also been moving lower over the last week, it’s likely that longs from 2 – 3 weeks ago are not completely flat yet

↑ All of the above being said the July CHI is $1.12 off the high, some technical bounce is expected

↔ Funds at 20% of record short still have plenty of room to sell if they choose to do so

Cattle – BB still grinding higher, showlist +25K, most news starts the week mixed

↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.67 Select -0.10 packer BE at 196.36, packer cushion $11.23

↑ BB continues the slow grind higher which is one of the reasons packer profits are over $11 for the first time since late January

↓ A +25K showlist suggests that while packers can pay higher, for this week they might not need to

↔ A bounce back was needed as most of last week futures were priced on the cautious side but for this week that is now corrected and the news starts off mixed

↓ Last week’s average cash trades were lower than word of mouth suggested being -$1.40 at 185.13