Bi-annual Cattle report confirms five years of liquidation.

The bi-annual Cattle report, unofficially referred to as the Cattle Inventory, is mainly a survey of cow/calf producers. The trade monitors this beef and dairy report for signs of expansion or contraction at the base producer level. USDA reported the combined beef and dairy herd, All Cattle & Calves, at 87.157 million head. This was -1.9% from last year and represents five years of declines. The trade estimate was -1.8% (ALDL -2.1%).

Beef cows as of January 1 were counted at 28.223 million head. This was -2.5% from last year. The beef cow herd has fallen for five years. The current inventory is down 11% from the mini-peak in 2019. The trade estimate was -2.5% (ALDL -2.5%). The drop in beef cow numbers is a simple mix of cow slaughter numbers and new heifers. It is true that beef cow culling took a big hit in 2023. It was -11% from 2022. But that does not mean expansion. We are being compared to 2022 which was the biggest female liquidation in at least 50 years. Our 2023 cow cull was still 12.4% of that year’s starting cow herd. 2023 would be classified as the fifth heaviest liquidation in 50 years.

Our main focus on this report was on the heifer end of things. Beef heifers held back for the cow herd were counted at 4.858 million head. This was -1.4% from last year. The trade estimate was -0.3% from last year (ALDL -1.8%). Heifer replacement numbers have been declining for now seven years straight. USDA also gives us a breakdown of pregnant heifers as of January 1, set for calving in 2024, and also newly weaned females that will be bred in June. Those two categories were estimated at -1.9% and -0.7% respectively. We are not in expansion but some are considering it. In the report USDA reports all heifers then gives a breakdown for beef, dairy and other. The other group is for any female set for the feedlot, whether in it right now or not. USDA reported this group at -2.0% under last year. The estimate was -2.4% (ALDL -2.6%).

The last number we monitor is the 2023 calf crop estimate. Now, last year’s July survey already suggested -1.9% from the prior year. This was lightly adjusted to -2.5%.

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