Corn – July still holding 440 chart support, maps show less rain but also cooler temperatures
↑ The 440 area in July is still holding as chart support, the key level to hold in that area is 435 ¾
↔ Morning 10 day maps ease back on rains but also bring in slightly below average temperatures
↓ A lack of a weather scare is likely to mean mostly sideways trade but a slight bias lower due to the high USDA carryout number and light to moderate fund selling
↔ There were rains to cause some planting concerns but on a national basis planting progress was near normal, now we have a 75% GTE rating, so far the USDA is suggesting trend to slightly above trend yield
↔ Corn yield beat trend years 2014 – 2018 then under trend 2019 – 2023, are we due for above trend?
Beans – Losses in BRA estimated at 2.7 MMT due to floods, solid US weather, July support near 1150
↑ Losses in Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS) are estimated at 2.7 MMT due to flooding a few weeks back, lightly supportive but not as large of as trade first assumed of 5 MMT+
↔ Being the heart of the US growing season we would expect 80% - 90% of trade’s attention to be on US issues which limits any SA headline influence unless it is truly large scale
↔ Next chart support in July is still at lower levels: 1145 ¾ and 1140 ½
↓ A recent increase in bean open interest may suggest that funds are selling with planting past 75%
Wheat – Putin announced frost may have killed 1% of crop, trade assumed more, US harvest pressure
↓ We saw a new Russia headline yesterday stating that frost may have killed 1% of the crop, the recent rally has been based on private analysts looking for 4% to 5% losses
↔ July Chi wheat reached the 38% retracement at 655, we will see if better support starts to be seen
↓ As long as US harvest is under way we should see at least light harvest pressure most days
Cattle – BB continues higher, trade remains very cautious pricing in about $1 lower cash this week
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +1.28 Select +0.77 packer BE at 197.28, packer cushion $10.75
↑ BB continues higher and lifts packer profits near $11, reason to expect solid backer cash bids
↔ Futures trade remains cautious pricing in a $1 lower cash trade this week (factoring normal basis)
↔ There was talk of a 193 trade in NE (last week average 190.57) but that was taken back and now is being stated that trade did not happen yesterday, we are still waiting for first cash bids
↔ The cautious futures trade is surprising given the important move higher in BB this week but we still have reason to expect a $1 to $2 higher cash trade this week