Corn – Better support seen yesterday/overnight near 400, OI suggests harvest pressure picking up
↑ Both yesterday and overnight set back near 400 but that level found more buying support as expected, even if 400 is taken out we can expect general better buying at these levels
↓ Open interest has jumped higher the last 2 days suggesting that harvest pressure may be picking up
↑ Ethanol remains strong, exports are moderate, even cattle feeders are locking in feed hedges here so support comes from multiple areas once corn is around the 400 level
↔Yesterday may have had some macro selling influence which last night does not suggest again today
Beans – Crush better than expected by 7 mil bu, exports may improve further at Nov levels under $10
↑ Yesterday’s crush report beat expectations by 7 mil bu, one of a few improved demand reports
↑ We continue to see regular small 8 AM sales reports but some in trade may start expecting those will pick up even further now that Nov beans are under $10
↔US beans are already cheaper to China than SA beans so a further lower price could certainly improve exports further, we will see if we start to see signs of this on Friday’s export report
↔We haven’t seen any signs of funds in a week but keep in mind in beans they are not totally flat yet
Wheat – Another small increase in HRW rains this morning, now reaching into SD
↓ HRW rains were increased further this morning, the maps don’t suggest anything that will solve all dryness issues but it is slowly improving and showing more rain than in the last 30 days
↔Coverage expanded slightly now reaching into SD and IA although rains will be light in those states
↔Next chart support for Dec CHI is the 50 day MA at 571 ¼ and the 2 month low of 564
Cattle – Futures turn cautious while BB continues higher, some selling minutes showed strong volume
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +3.51 select +2.99 packer BE at 193.33, packer cushion $6.37
↔Futures turned cautious yesterday which might have been macro related as some outside markets were lower but most macro influences would only be expected to have short term influence on cattle
↔Some of the selling yesterday had volume spikes consistent with what we see from funds but would not yet make the case funds are flipping back to being sellers of cattle from signs seen for just 1 day
↔The current packer cushion level suggests potential for a $1 higher cash trade this week and as of yesterday’s close futures were still priced $0.75 over last week’s cash
↔The recent futures setback has given away optimism premium but hasn’t looked like a turn lower