Corn – Volume slows, still seeing general pre crop report support, downtrend line today at -440¾
↔ Volume slowed yesterday, we are seeing some pre Acreage report buying but not active yet
↑↓ Seeing signs of fund short covering still being offset with producer selling, OI was +10K yesterday
↓ While there are reasons to give a light bullish bias on corn right now the May contract still appears to
struggle when reaching a 3 month downtrend line and today that line is at 440 ¾
↔ State by state planting numbers are not official but do give us a guess at the start of early planting,
those numbers are: TX 34% (33% ave), LA 38% (31% ave), MS 3% (3% ave), AR 1% (1% ave)
Beans – A bounce last night keeps beans moving sideways, expected acreage not causing a setback
↔ Overnight support keeps May in a recent 7 day sideways move, 1200 is expected resistance
↔ Acreage numbers are holding beans back from following gains seen in corn/wheat but is not causing
a larger scale setback, this is again due to total acreage expected lower
↔ A closer look at the recent range puts support in around 1180 and resistance around 1200
↔ There is still talk/influence over SA crop numbers but expect trade to turn 90% of attention to US
issues following the acreage report unless the SA crop turns out to be far out of line of expectations
Wheat – Russian and other overseas prices further supported yesterday, slightly lower again last night
↔ Overseas and US wheats are still trading right in line, overseas recovered yesterday to make 30 day
highs although trade is still choppy making it difficult to truly call it a “recovery” just yet
↓ Some traders may be looking ahead to HRW weather where those areas are expecting active
rains/snows in the 10 day forecast, again will expect limited US influence until after the Acreage report
↓ Tomorrow’s exports might be in doubt, they were solid but the recent 4 weeks have trended lower
Cattle – BB calm yesterday, 106.4% Placements misleading, tomorrow’s weight report still key
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.11 Select +0.13 packer BE at 195.71, packer cushion $9.86
↔ BB slowed yesterday, any sign of a true setback would be quickly detrimental to price
↔ Placements are expected at 106.4% on Friday but that number is misleading due to there being an
extra day in February this year and some placements at the end of Jan were moved to early Feb
↓ Tomorrow’s weights report is likely to be more influential than Friday’s COT report, it has been over 6
months since a COT report offered major influence but increased weights are a major recent change
↓ Given a continued slower slaughter in recent weeks we can expect tomorrow’s weights higher again