Corn – Trade is happy with current price levels for Thursday’s report, looking for small yield decline
↔Mostly sideways trade lately showing signs trade is happy going into the report with Dec near 405
↔There did not look to be fund short covering yesterday (or if so, very limited), maybe funds will move to the sidelines until seeing Thursday’s report
↔Another sign funds have slowed is seeing yesterday being the lowest volume day of the year for corn
↔Some harvest has just started in the Midwest, it is already time to be listening for combine reports
↔Corn GTE was -1% yesterday at 64%, harvest was reported at 5% complete
Beans – More reasons trade is expecting another rush of Chinese buying, GTE unchanged
↓ GTE was left unchanged at 65% when a 1% decline was expected, this has a bit more impact this
week as it may give trade reason to believe yield will be slightly higher Thursday
↔Yesterday trade took the news of the Canadian/Chinese trade spat as potential news to see more buying of US bean products, we may see additional headlines on this issue offering short term influence
↔There is talk of dryness in BRA but know that this is the dry season for BRA right now, monsoon rains that normally bring a surge of rainfall typically don’t start until October
↑ We continue to see regular 8 AM sales to offer light consistent support
Wheat – Not much change expected Thursday for this market, exports should be the main focus
↔This will be the one market where exports on Thursday are likely to have a larger impact on movement than the crop report
↔Exports have improved enough to take attention away from following overseas moves
↔HRW planting was reported at 6% yesterday, the 5 day forecast is clear for planting this week
Cattle – National showlist -7K, packer profits near high of the year, trade may slow waiting for bids
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.89 select +2.37 packer BE at 192.73, packer cushion $11.78
↑ National showlist -7K this week, if you put last week and this week together it is -27K
↑ Yesterday’s BB bounce put packer profits near $12 which is not far from the higher of the year at $14
↔Once again the fundamental side of cattle suggests a higher cash trade just like last week so the biggest question by far is “Will cattle sellers hold out for potential higher cash bids?”
↔We expect cash news to be quiet today, if there is a report on Tuesday, it is typically lower