Corn – Exports expected moderate to slightly poor, no expectation of index buying today
↓ Exports are expected to come in slightly below the 1200K average, last week was 992K
↓ The last 2 days have seen light index fund buying to end the month but with a new month starting that buying is not expected today, some may start selling that bounce again
↔ Ethanol was moderate yesterday at 991K, not poor but not strong enough to be supportive
↓↑ Chart resistance points are the recent high of 453 ¼ and a downtrend line at 456 ½, support levels are the recent 2 lows of 436 ¾ and 436 ½ which are each 3 year lows for corn
Beans – Exports expected poor, possibly well below the 800K average for this time of year
↓ Exports expected poor like last week’s 561K which was well below average for this time of year
↔ Most of the market talk on exports points out how much cheaper BRA beans are compared to US beans with some estimating even the lower cost BRA beans are a negative profit for Chinese crushers
↔ Like corn, index fund support won’t be expected today like it was seen the last 2 days, that group tends to focus trade at the beginning or end of a month but not commonly both
↓ Some who have wanted to sell a bounce may now step in with index support no longer expected
↓↑ Chart resistance is a recent high 1246 and a downtrend line 1256 ¼, support is 3 year lows 1181 ¼
Wheat – Overseas accelerates its move to new 3 year lows, exports expected moderate
↓ Overseas not only made new 3 year lows but accelerated the downside movement
↔ Until better support is found in overseas wheat it still needs to be a factor to watch daily for market influence, new 3 year lows on those contracts is a story trade will be watching
↔ Exports are expected moderate today, around 500K
Cattle – BB lower, enough to call it slightly concerning now, only 1 cash bid of 175 in IA
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.53 select -2.88 packer BE at 185.14, packer cushion $9.28
↔ BB has now fallen to a level able to bring packer profits back close to $9, not yet low enough to call it a negative influence but could be enough to see less support like we saw yesterday
↔ Only saw 1 cash bid yesterday of 175 in IA, about 0.50 over last week, futures are already priced about $2 over cash so we may see a neutral reaction to that first bid
↔ The cattle inventory report came in almost exactly as expected with all cattle/calves at 98% of last year when the estimate was for 98.2%, this report may not see much reaction due to everyone in trade already knowing we would see fewer cattle this year as compared to last year