Corn – Light spill over support from beans, would still expect fund selling after the opening
↑ Beans are offering light spill over support in overnight trade
↓ It is likely that funds will sell early in the session as we have seen for over 2 ½ weeks
↑ After the early fund selling, corn has recently seen smaller speculative buying ahead of Friday’s report
↑ Yesterday’s ethanol was quite strong at 1062K, likely to see USDA raise ethanol tomorrow
↔ Exports are expected moderate today just under 1000K, recent exports have been strong enough to
expect USDA to raise exports tomorrow along with ethanol
↔ Analysts’ estimate of a 2.105 carryout tomorrow still suggests a March price near 490
Beans – Slightly drier 10 day forecast for both ARG/BRA, exports expected strong near 800K
↑ Morning maps are slightly drier for both ARG/BRA, rains for both areas are light instead of moderate
↔ CONAB lowered their BRA production estimate to 155.2 MMT, that would put this year’s crop close
to last year solid crop of 154.6, if the estimate falls below last year’s level it may become supportive
↔ Exports are expected to be strong today near 800K although that might be a tough level to reach
given that we have not seen any 8 AM sales reports recently
↔ Slightly drier SA maps may cause light speculative buying similar to what corn sees in the afternoons
↔ Analysts’ estimate of a 0.243 carryout tomorrow still suggests a March price near 1300
Wheat – Exports expected moderate near 300K, March CHI back to the low end of the previous range
↔ Exports are expected to return to a moderate level of 300K on today’s report
↔ March CHI near 610 puts that contract back at the low-end of the range seen over the last 3 weeks
↔ Analysts are expecting carryout to remain unchanged from last month at 0.658
Cattle – BB continues to recover, may soon start adding support, cash bids still very quiet
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.91 select +4.11 packer BE at 174.63, packer cushion $2.08
↔ BB has recovered enough to now call it a neutral influence on futures trade, a further bounce may
start to add more regular support going forward as packer profits move into positive territory
↔ Did not see an official posted cash bid at all yesterday, word-of-mouth bids suggest TX started with a
cash bid of 173 which would be $0.50 higher than last week
↔ For now trade seems stuck between support and resistance, BB is not strong enough to encourage
new buying yet but is strong enough to slow down sellers
↔ The level seen last year where packers started to bid more aggressively was when gross packer
profits reached $7 or more