Corn – Lower than expected acreage starts the focus on US conditions with light support
↑ Following the acreage report most in trade turn attention to US weather/growing conditions, starting
with a lower than expected acreage of 90.036 (-4.6 mil from last year) suggests light support
↔ Funds were sellers of 9K into the report, will see if acreage causes them to cover shorts again, they
are still short 252K (74% of record) so they have plenty of shorts left to cover eventually
↔ As of last week NOAA’s crop moisture index map showed no crop areas ranked as even slightly dry
↔ In the past week we have seen MO and southern IL seeing the least amount of moisture but those 2
areas have some of the most rain in the 10 day forecast
Beans – Total acreage down 3.77 million still suggests support for beans, funds cover 14K shorts
↑ Even though bean acreage was up 2.9 mil on Friday, total acreage was down 3.77 mil which means
the acreage report will be treated as supportive over all, even for beans
↑ Funds covered 14K shorts, now short 135K or 78% of record, still a long way from being “flat”
↔ Some attention will still be on exports and South America but following the acreage report most
attention should quickly turn to US conditions unless a major story is seen in BRA or ARG
↔ Active resistance seen going into the acreage report was attributed to aggressive producer cash
selling (for both corn/beans), on now seeing lower acreage, some of that selling is expected to slow
Wheat – Attention turning over to US weather and HRW conditions are off to a solid start
↓ As with corn/beans, most attention should now turn over to US conditions with last night a solid
example as overseas wheat was higher yet overnight trade was lower on solid starting conditions
↔ Forecast maps have less rain in western HRW areas but current conditions are more solid than we
have seen in years for the start of the HRW crop
Cattle – Cash bids were steady to $2 higher, BB likely to go back to being #1 influence
↔ Friday’s PM BB was choice -1.64 Select +2.26 packer BE at 193.72, packer cushion $5.64
↓ Bird flu panic trade expected to subside this week with attention turning back to BB as the #1
influence, BB was higher on Friday but trended lower overall last week
↔ A packer profit level near $6 is not low (for this year) but also not a supportive start to the week
↔ Cash trades were likely stronger than expected last week with KS/TX reporting around $2 lower
while parts of NE were seen with steady cash bids, today’s weekly average likely $1 to $2 lower
↔ BB should be the top focus for trade again, seeing if last week’s grind lower continues this week