Corn – Additional analysts releasing yield numbers close to USDA’s current 183.1, Allendale 18 2.5
↑ Trading patterns continue to suggest fund short covering but open interest is not falling much
↔Additional analysts are coming out with their yield numbers this week, most of which are staying very close to USDA’s current 183.1 which with strong exports would be slightly supportive
↔If yield is left unchanged at 183.1 it suggests Dec price around $4.20, if yield is increased 0.5 to 1.0 bushels then it suggests price closer to $4.00, if yield will be raised 2 more times then the $3.90’s
↓ The September crop report almost always changes yield and with the field reports along with strong GTE we may have to bias towards expecting an increase a week from today
Beans – Additional yield estimates also close to USDA’s 53.2 for beans, Allendale 53.3
↔Like corn analysts this week are coming in with yield numbers close to the USDA’s 53.2, the difference for beans is that leaving yield at the USDA level suggests price very close to current levels
↔If yield is raised 0.5 bu then it suggests near $10, if it is raised twice then around $9.80
↔For the longest time on the 2024 setback trade wondered “what price level will start to see better exports?”, now we have found that level and need to ask “what price bounce will slow them again?”
↓ A September crop report yield change is more likely to raise yield than to leave it unchanged
Wheat – Fund short covering is quickest and most easily able to be seen in wheat, improved exports
↑ Fund short covering is causing a faster and more easy to see rally in wheat due to OI falling actively
↑ In recent months US wheat trade has followed overseas due to having little news of it’s own to trade but now exports are improving which may put traders focus back on US issues which are improving
↓ If there is weakness in wheat it is still more likely in overnight when funds are not trading and Euro traders remain focused on overseas issues
Cattle – Still no official posted cash bids but rumors cash will trade steady in KS/TX at 183
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +0.93 select -0.72 packer BE at 193.99, packer cushion $11.07
↔Still no official cash bid posted but rumors yesterday suggested cash would trade steady in KS/TX at 183 which is keeping futures from adding support despite solid BB and a lower showlist
↔A steady 183 cash trade would be disappointing with packer profits at $11 and a -20K showlist, it would be the first time this year cash did not trade higher with packer profits at $11
↔Futures are still priced $2 under cash but these latest rumors justify slightly cautious futures trade