Corn – Light trade expected, may see light fund short covering, no updates on rail lines yet
↑ Most of yesterday’s light support looked to be light fund short covering, they look to still be slowly
exiting positions before the end of the year and for corn that means covering a few shorts
↔ We should expect very slow and low volume trade today unless a major headline is seen
↔ No rail line updates as of this morning, still too early to make a case for major demand problems but
it could turn into a larger issue if not solved quickly after the new year
↔ Ethanol was moderate this week and yesterday’s exports were slightly slow, neither looks to need
major changes on the Jan crop report
Beans – Morning maps drier for ARG, still solid rains for BRA, March currently close to fair value
↑ Morning 1 – 5 and 6 – 10 day maps changed rains from moderate for ARG to now light rains
↓ BRA continues to see active rains in the entire 10 day outlook
↔ Fair value for March was posted wrong in previous morning notes, it should be right on 1300
↔ Despite the solid looking weather maps, private analysts continue to lower production ideas with
most in the mid 150 MMT levels, trade continues to side with weather maps over private estimates
↔ When seeing production estimates keep in mind last year for BRA was a solid crop at 154.6 MMT
Wheat – Exports right at a moderate level of 326K, expecting more of the same range trade
↔ Exports came in right as expected at a moderate 326K, not offering much influence on price
↔ Moderate exports continue to mean a moderate price and the same range for March CHI continues
↔ Overseas wheat is on a grind lower and if it falls much more it could start to offer spill over
resistance to US wheat as long as exports remain moderate
Cattle – Moderate fund selling seen yesterday, BB choppy and best described as slightly weak
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.00 select -0.33 packer BE at 175.39, packer cushion $5.43
↓ Yesterday looked to be fund liquidation of longs as they continue to exit positions in most commodity
markets before the end of the year, for cattle this means occasional light selling
↔ Funds are likely long less than 20K or 10% of record so they don’t have many positions left to exit
↑↔ Cash traded mostly $1 higher this week but a slightly lower BB report through the week suggests
that next week is more likely to trade steady or even possibly lower if BB fades further
↔ Fundamentals have improved slightly in the last 2 weeks but still too early to say a recovery is right
around the corner, it is possible cattle may trade sideways for a while first