Analysts are expecting strong exports

Corn – Analysts expecting strong to very strong exports 1800K – 4000K, traders thinking lower end

↑ If the analysts’ estimates are what we see today then 1800K would be slightly strong and the top end estimate of 4000K would be very strong

↔Traders continue to leave Dec priced near 410 which implies they are looking more for the bottom end of analysts’ expectations, possibly 1500K – 2000K

↑ Dec is seeing strong support around 410 which is likely to be even stronger if it moves closer to 400

↔While seeing support around 410 is exactly as most expected, it is a bit surprising to see resistance lower than the 420 fair value level this week, possibly some end of month/harvest cash selling?

Beans – Analysts expecting moderate to strong exports 1800K – 2950K, recent 8 AM sales add support

↑ Finally seeing some of the China buying rumors confirmed as 264K was seen as 8 AM sales yesterday helping to quickly put support into Jan which had reached close to contract lows

↔Analysts are expecting strong exports today but like corn, traders appear to be looking for the lower end of that estimate, corn/beans are priced at a level that anticipates only moderate exports today

↓ Traders may be reacting to concerns that China may slow the imports of beans at two northern ports, so far these are rumors but they are seeing enough talk to start looking believable

↔This potential export slowdown is likely why beans are priced closer to contract lows than corn

Wheat – Analysts expecting moderate to strong exports 300K – 675K, major rain system this weekend

↔Analysts low end estimate of 300K would be disappointing today, likely most expect 500K+

↓ The back to back rain systems for the Plains start up Friday night into Saturday and still has solid coverage of 1 ½” with the top end totals still reaching as much as 12” over both events combined

↔Russia claims to be setting an export price minimum but we will see in tenders soon if that is true

Cattle – Quite a few cash trades posted yesterday ranging from 188 – 191, most trades were 190

↓ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -1.17 select -0.64 packer BE at 193.28, packer cushion $3.08

↓ BB may have played a role in yesterday’s cash trades which started mostly at 190 (steady with las week) but then started seeing a few 189 trades after the AM BB came out

↔There were quite a few cash trades yesterday so we have likely seen the bulk of our trades already, totaling up all sales from yesterday would estimate this week’s average to be about 189.50 (0.50 lower)

↔BB has taken packer profits to $3 which is certainly low enough to expect BB to be our #1 guide in both cash and futures right now, currently it is suggesting a new turn lower after a 4 week rally