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Quick Studies

Corn and soybean basis update.

Corn basis in Central Illinois on October 4 was -38 cents per bushel. That is over the -30 average from the prior five years that held heavy supplies on that date.

October 7, 2024
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Corn and soybean basis update.

Corn basis in Central Illinois on October 4 was -38 cents per bushel. That is over the -30 average from the prior five years that held heavy supplies on that date.

Quick Studies
October 7, 2024
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Clear Ahead For Harvest

Funds cover 63K shorts, now short 68K or 19% of record, still a clear 10 day forecast for harvest

Market Movers
October 7, 2024
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Livestock weights lightly trimmed in the latest week.

The weekly Actual Slaughter report detailed meat production statistics for the second week of September.

Quick Studies
October 4, 2024
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September job growth sharply surpasses expectations.

Monthly non-farm payroll data this morning was quite positive. September job growth totaled 254,000. This was far over the 140,000 expected.

Quick Studies
October 4, 2024
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Exports Moderate, Recent Buying Slows

Trade became very concerned about global weather earlier this week with concerns in the US, Russia, Ukraine and Australia, some of that larger scale concerned buying slowed yesterday, including funds

Market Movers
October 4, 2024
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Daily Market Report

Livestock
Mixed trade was noted in beef today. Futures have largely recovered from their prior recession concerns. They remain in an uptrend. The best argument for fats and feeders is actually from the charts. Gaps are still open above. Offered fed cattle supplies will minimally dip here in Q4 on a year over year basis. The next real supply change will be Q2.
Wheat
The long awaited lowered export competition from Ukraine and Russia is still not in play yet. The trade is still hesitant to start pricing in the potential production problems that could be seen with the summer 2025 harvest from US, UKR and RUS. Last week's jobs report reduced the trade's expectation of heavy -0.50% interest rate cuts in November and December.
Soybean
Brazil and Argentina both finally have a two week forecast that calls for normal/above-normal rain. US soybeans continue to hold a premium over economic value, validly so for now. US export prices are cheaper than Brazil. Given a falling Mississippi in the days ahead, and forecasts for South American rains this market is taking some of that premium off the table.
Corn
The whole month of October has been a story of dwindling volume in the corn market. As we enter the heart of harvest, we start to turn attention to South American weather and upcoming production revisions.
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