Brazil's pricing advantage has clearly narrowed in recent months.
Sales of 428,898 tonnes were reported for soybeans. The trade estimate was 250,000 – 600,000.
USDA’s 1.700 billion bushel soybean export estimate is -14% from the five year average sale. Year to date sales are currently -17% from average. To meet USDA’s goal the remaining weeks through August need to improve to +39% from average. Of the past 17 weeks, including this week, 15 have been below the needed amount.
If remaining sales “improve” to even with average we'll miss USDA's goal by -48 million bushels.
It is way too early to panic about new crop export sales. Bookings before September 1 are not correlated well with how that year will end. But we will note the current minimal 865,227 tonne booking is the lowest for this time in 19 years!
