Corn – Planting to pass 90%, first GTE ratings today, maps show solid rains, 2.102 carryout
↔ Planting is expected to pass 90%, today will also be the first GTE rating, the 5 year average is 68%
↓ Morning 1 – 5 day shows very solid rains for 80% of growing areas, a very solid early season outlook
↓ The USDA’s last carryout update of 2.102 for new crop still suggests a final Dec price near 400, this means unless there are issues to threaten yield the standard trading day is likely to be slightly lower
↑ July is approaching first major chart support around the 440 level
↓ Funds continued to lightly sell adding 12K to their shorts, now short 133K or 39% of record
Beans – Planting expected to pass 80%, no nearby chart support, 0.445 carryout
↓ Planting is expected to pass 80% where trade will not mostly count as “done”
↓ Rains on the 1 – 5 day map will now be seen as beneficial to the crop with planting beyond 80%
↔ Beans don’t have much for nearby chart support, the next July level is near 1150, a low from April
↓ Just like corn, beans have a 0.445 carryout number to start with which suggests a final Nov price near 1000 and suggests that without yield threatening news the standard trading day is likely to be lower
↔ Funds were still short covering buying 12K beans, once planting passed 80% in corn funds resumed selling, we will want to watch out for that in beans this week
Wheat – Overnight Euro traders resumed concern over the RU crop, funds stopped short covering
↑ Sunday nights continue to see the largest amount of Euro buying over RU crop concerns
↔ Funds had been short covering in wheat but last week they were mostly quiet, sellers of 1K
↓ Given the size of the recent rally, even a 38% “small” correction would put July CHI at 665
Cattle – 2 weeks now where BB failed to take out resistance, packers eased bids last week
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -0.84 Select -0.81 packer BE at 195.23, packer cushion $7.41
↓ Everyone in trade knows that BB cannot go higher forever which is why we have mentioned the resistance area in BB and for 2 weeks now that resistance has held bringing in some demand concerns
↓ Last week BB showed signs of slowing demand, packers then eased back bids and average cash trade on today’s report will be expected somewhere between $1 and $2 lower
↔ The positive factor for BB is that it is not yet failing so packer profits are still strong enough to pay
higher cash if they need to this week, showlist will help to determine that