Corn – Expecting strong exports of at least 1500K, possibly some new 8 AM sales as well
↑ Overnight trade is expecting strong weekly sales today of at least 1500K+
↔ There continues to be talk of China buying more corn, we will see if that is confirmed at 8 AM
↑ March is mostly trading in the same range we have seen but with a slight bullish bias now due to a
pickup in exports, instead of 475 – 490 we might be seeing a new range of 483 – 493
↔ Open interest was down 6K yesterday which might have been light fund short covering
↓ Crude may offer spill over resistance although there is no proof it has affected ethanol at all yet
Beans – Exports expected slightly strong over 1000K, 1 – 5 day SA map drier, 6 – 10 also slightly drier
↑ There haven’t been many 8 AM sales recent but trade still likely expects exports over 1000K
↑ The 1 – 5 day SA map remains on the drier side, the morning 6 – 10 day map is slightly drier for BRA
↔ Tuesday, yesterday and last night all found lows near 1290, support is being seen right where it is
expected which is near the 1290 fair value level
↑ Individual estimates of the BRA crop are being updated as down 3% - 5% but CONAB has not updated
their number from the last estimate of 162.42 MMT, CONAB likely to update that later this week
↓ Bean OI is slowly moving lower which could be funds slowly liquidating their +68K long position
Wheat – China made 3 purchases totaling over 1000K, today’s weekly number expected strong
↑ China’s 3 day purchase pattern has totaled 1010K, a major increase over all expectations
↑ Today’s weekly number is expected strong over 600K and next week should be even stronger as it will
factor in most of this recent China buying
↔ China buying of US wheat is now at the 3rd strongest seen in the last 15 years
Cattle – NE traded $2.50 lower then $3 lower yesterday, BB still lower, signs of fund selling yesterday
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -3.19 select +0.77 packer BE at 174.77, packer cushion $0.45
↓ BB continues lower and continues to be the #1 guide for the overall move lower in cash/futures
↓ NE traded cash as much as $3 lower yesterday, following the trend in BB, packers are not willing to
lose more than they already are, when BB moves $3 lower packers then bid cash $3 lower
↓ There were signs that funds were sellers yesterday but they are not the cause of the setback, they are
simply adding to downside already being seen from poor BB and cash news
↔ Open interest increased yesterday, a sign that feedlots are starting to aggressively hedge