Corn – First GTE at 75%, trade expected 70%, starts the growing season with above trend expectations
↓ GTE at 75% when the 5 year average is 69% starts speculators/funds off with the expectation of above trend line yield potential, a trend line yield with current acreage projects Dec near $4
↓ Funds have been lightly selling corn and the GTE rating gives them no reason to stop
↑ Support was found yesterday in July right at the expected level around 440, it is expected there again
↔ The key level for July to hold is 435 ¾, taking that out only leaves contract lows on the chart at 422 ¼
↔ Morning maps backed off on rainfall totals but 10 day maps still have light to moderate rains
Beans – Planting at 78%, average is 73%, trade will consider planting “done”, July support near 1150
↓ Planting didn’t pass 80% but at 78% most in trade will still consider planting “done” unless there is a major rain event, morning maps don’t have any such event
↓ July beans still do not have much chart support until 1150 leaving more “easy” downside room
↔ Funds went back to selling corn once planting passed 75%, we need to watch out for that in beans
↔ Flooded acres in spring that could go unplanted is still a potential issue but not until the June 28th acreage report update, far too early to expect speculators to buy on acreage issues right now
Wheat – No Euro trader support, HRW harvest 6% compared to 3% average, yield reports likely soon
↓ No Russia fear support last night, that may hold off for now with the HRW harvest officially underway at 6%, until harvest reaches 75% we would think most day sessions will focus on harvest
↔ Yesterday’s headline stated that Russia may declare an emergency due to frost later this week, we will watch out for any headlines that update this later this week
↓ HRW harvest is expected to be strong, we should expect to start hearing yield reports soon
Cattle – BB, average cash trade and showlist all less bearish than feared, BB moves above resistance
↔ Yesterday’s PM BB was choice +2.40 Select +1.99 packer BE at 196.53, packer cushion $10.10
↑ Yesterday’s BB, average cash trade and showlist reports were all not a bearish as feared
↑ BB moved above resistance, CH + SEL is at 619.3, packer profits are back up to $10
↑ Showlist this week is -5700, not a major number but bullish in combination with packer profits at $10
↔ We would not expect to see a cash bid today but will expect to see them earlier than previous weeks due to packers having $10 cushion to work with for the first time since mid March