Corn – Ethanol expected strong again today, July continues to hold 2 month lows of 438 ½
↑ Ethanol maintained a solid report last week at 1056K and will be expected strong again today
↑ Beans offered active spill over pressure on corn yesterday but July found solid support at 440, maintaining just above the 2 month low of 438 ½ which is the key chart level to watch
↔Last week’s exports were poor but given that was only one week, not much pre selling is expected
↔Open interest was down and aggressive 14K, this hints that cash selling was likely most of the pressure and funds may have been the buyers near 440 offering support as they exit shorts
↔After the current rain system ends, there is a clearing for most areas to plant over the next 9 days
Beans – July took out last week’s lows and continues a grind lower, next major support is 1140 ½
↓ July took out last week’s lows which continues the chart pattern of a grinding lower trend
↓ It is likely that most of the selling in beans was also cash selling but with an open interest increase of 8K there is a chance that funds may have lightly sold as well
↔Once planting gets underway at a faster pace it may slow cash selling short term
↑ We already know to expect strong exports on tomorrow’s weekly report, we will see if that news along with this week’s strong crush report can offer support today
Wheat – HRW areas saw moderate rains, now return to mostly dry the next 10 days
↔HRW area saw moderate rains recently and now have a drier forecast the next 10 days, if this pans out we may see support in the KC wheat again later this week or next week
↔Exports recovered to a moderate level last week and will be expected moderate again (300K – 400K)
↔The slightly better support in KC may be attracting traders to buy KC/sell CHI as a popular spread
Cattle – Not nearly as clear signs of fund buying but may have been yesterday, BB resuming lower
↔Yesterday’s PM BB was choice -2.86 Select +1.30 packer BE at 187.53, packer cushion $5.62
↔Yesterday can be assumed as fund buying again but both trading patterns and open interest did not show obvious signs that it was fund related, for now just assuming that it was
↔BB eased again bringing packer profits under $6, can still assume $1 higher cash but barely
↔If BB continues to fall it may be tough to assume higher cash this week even with a -24,500 showlist
↔June has a recent range roughly between 172 and 176, yesterday’s high was at 175.85